Knowledge@Wharton Finance and Investment Research Article

View Article on Knowledge@Wharton Mobile

Building a Modern Economy: How the 'Dubai CEO's' Big Bet Is Paying Off, for Now

Published: March 21, 2007 in Knowledge@Wharton
    Download Audio Play Audio
Article Image
Print Get PDF of Article Send a Comment
Share this Article

The announcement that Halliburton, the Houston, Tex.-based oil services company, was moving its headquarters to Dubai may have surprised many Americans. But for people in Dubai, it simply ratified decades of hard work.

With scant oil reserves, Dubai's ruling family, the Maktoums, long ago realized that their state's future lay in serving as the commercial hub of the Arab Middle East, not pulling petroleum from the desert sands. "They have had to live on their wits," says Bulent Gultekin, a Wharton finance professor. "So they've tried to build Dubai into the business platform for the region."

To that end, the Maktoums, led by the billionaire known today as "Dubai's CEO," Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, have invested heavily in the infrastructure of a modern economy. They have built a first-class port, airport and airline; created lightly regulated enterprise zones to foster the development of new industries and attract foreign firms; and spent lavishly on amenities ranging from the white, sail-shaped Burj al Arab, the world's tallest hotel, to an indoor ski slope chilled to about 30 degrees Fahrenheit.     

"Sheikh Mohammed has been a real visionary," says Todd Millay, executive director of the Wharton Global Family Alliance. "The biggest decision he has made is to create a very free economy. It's true laissez faire without many of the regulations we have in the U.S." Indeed, in some sectors, the country might benefit from a few more rules, Millay notes. "You see construction workers working outside in the summer when it's 120 degrees."

Sheikh Mohammed's let-it-be attitude extends to the social norms that have caused so much angst in places like Saudi Arabia and Iran. Though Dubai's native population is overwhelmingly Muslim, expatriates and visitors can buy alcoholic beverages in restaurants and bars, and western women don't have to wear headscarves or veils. Sheikh Mo, as he's known, is an avid breeder and racer of horses and knocks around in jeans and a T-shirt when he visits his thoroughbred farm in Kentucky.

The mix of infrastructure, economic freedom and tolerance is paying off as multinationals, including General Electric and AT&T, are increasingly selecting Dubai, which is about the size of Rhode Island, as their Middle Eastern base. Others, including Microsoft and Intel, have located sizeable offices there. The emirate also has been boosted by high oil prices, which are pumping tens of billions of dollars into the Persian Gulf area, and from political tensions and safety concerns in some nearby nations. Long peaceful, Dubai welcomes foreigners, and expatriates comprise about 80% of its population of 1.3 million.

"Everybody in the region has an interest in Dubai being a business hub," says Mauro Guillen, Wharton management professor and newly appointed director of the Lauder Institute for Management and International Studies. "You need a safe place where you can do business. The elites in all of these countries want a haven where they can put their money and meet." Adds Millay: "There's no other natural 'capital' in the area like a New York, a Tokyo or a London."

Port Controversy

Dubai, which is one of the seven United Arab Emirates, has served as a commercial crossroads in the Middle East for centuries. Originally, local pearl divers and date farmers traded there with merchant seamen from farther east, who came bearing silk and spices. "It's long had commercial links with India and Iran," says David Butter, Middle East business editor for the Economist Intelligence Unit, an affiliate of the Economist magazine. It was a British protectorate during much of the 20th century, gaining its independence in 1971.

In the 1970s, Sheikh Mohammed's father realized that, to continue to play a central role in the region's trade, his emirate needed a modern container port. He borrowed heavily to build it, and his bet paid off. Dubai's port ranks as the world's 9th busiest in container volume, and its manager, DP World, is considered a leading operator, overseeing facilities around the globe. Last year, DP World found itself mired in controversy when it bought a British company with operations at several U.S. ports, including New York and Philadelphia. Members of the U.S. Congress objected to Middle Eastern ownership, citing security concerns, and DP World, although it had the Bush Administration's support, decided to sell the U.S. operations.

Oil was discovered in Dubai a few years before independence from Great Britain, and it led to a wealth surge there, as it did throughout much of the region. But Dubai long ago weaned itself off a dependence on petroleum, Butter says. Today, only about 5% of the emirate's GDP comes from oil, and the reserves are expected to disappear by 2010. Even so, Dubai benefits handsomely from the economic activity that the rest of the region's oil riches generate. Many energy company employees operate out of Dubai -- often their families will remain there while they work elsewhere -- and wealthy people from other Persian Gulf countries spend and invest their money there.

Those investments have fostered the real boom in today's Dubai: real estate. "As you come from the airport, you see hundreds of high cranes and high rises," Gultekin says. "It's mind boggling. Twenty years ago, there were three or four high rises. Now it's like Manhattan."

Dubai has made the construction of superlatives a central part of its marketing strategy. At the moment, the world's tallest building, Burj Dubai, is rising beside the world's biggest mall. "They don't want to disclose how tall it will be," Guillen says. "I've heard that they have come up with a design that they can add to" if another building surpasses it. Another hotel, even larger than the Burj al Arab, is being planned as part of a new resort complex that will encompass 31 hotels with more than 29,000 rooms. 

Just off Dubai's coast, the world's biggest manmade islands, shaped like giant palm trees, have been dredged out of the Persian Gulf sand. "Thousands of people are working there simultaneously to build houses," Gultekin says. "The entire city is like a giant construction site." Soon 300 more islands, shaped and arrayed like continents and islands on a map of the world, will join them.

According to the Yearbook of the United Arab Emirates, "Between 2000 and 2005, the number of residential buildings in Dubai increased by more than 42%, to 79,000 buildings, from 56,000. This compares with a modest growth in residential buildings of 6.7% in the previous five years." 

Beware the Bubble

There is, of course, a method to the madness. Dubai isn't a place like San Francisco, Sydney or Vancouver, with a striking natural setting. And its beaches quickly give way to desert and the sort of climate that only camels find comfortable. Summertime highs routinely top 100 degrees Fahrenheit. "If the air conditioning broke down, it could quickly become an unpleasant place," says Butter. "But it's been fairly well planned. Everything is created to make life as comfortable as possible."

Behind the opulent buildings stands the country's equally important, if more mundane, bureaucratic infrastructure, including its ballyhooed free trade zones. The zones try to remove the usual barriers that discourage multinationals from setting up operations in a developing country like Dubai. Within the International Financial Centre, which includes a fledgling stock exchange, foreign firms can own 100% of their operations -- Dubai restricts ownership outside of the free zones -- and pay no tax on income or profits. Similarly relaxed rules apply in Dubai's Internet and media zones. A new "studio city" is targeting the film industry. 

Dubai also has created a special judiciary to resolve disputes involving financial firms. "They brought in British common law," Gultekin says. "They even brought in a British judge to oversee it."

Growth on this scale brings a host of challenges and worries. Perhaps the foremost is the real estate boom, which has the makings of a bubble -- if it hasn't already become one. "There's a huge amount of new capacity coming online, and it's unclear what the implications of that will be," says Millay. "I was at a conference in Doha [in Qatar], and some American real estate guys were saying, 'Who's going to live in these new buildings?'"

Guillen agrees: "The biggest danger is that real estate is going wild. People are always surprised that it takes so long for a bubble to burst. But when it does burst, the fall is really big." Another challenge is traffic, which like the construction, has reached Manhattan-like proportions. "It's totally out of control," Guillen notes.

A big drop in oil prices also could hurt the country since it would curtail spending by citizens and companies from other Persian Gulf states as well as by western firms that do business with them. But Butter says that Dubai has diversified its economy enough that it should continue to thrive. "We've had such a long period of high oil prices that the economic development throughout the region really has its own momentum, which can keep going for some time," he notes. "Plus, a lot of the development is related to the fact that the Persian Gulf is where much of the remaining oil and gas reserves are located. These are the projects that are going to meet the incremental demand in the world oil market."

Back to Top

Here's what you think...

Total Comments: 10

#1    Re: Dubai

I am no stranger to Dubai and its amazing shift from oil dependent state or – emirate - into a diversified economical hub. Ilived there for over 4 years, and I was watching the visionary Sheikh Mohammed diversify the economy slowly but steadily,

Few were commenting that Dubai intended first to be the new Hong Kong when HK reunited with mother land – China. But that failed due to a couple of reasons. To understand Dubai and the Arabian Gulf, you need to go live there, interact with the culture, interact with people.

Dubai has the potential to do amazingly in the business world. It has a tax-free environment and access to the richest energy region in the world. Whoever is talking about oil prices going down is not watching China, India and the reserves status of this scarce source.

The question: Is Dubai growing faster than its own size and can the heart keeps pumping enough blood, demographical issues, ..etc

Dubai is moving from building its infrastructure to becoming a new Switzerland, which will decrease the population but move into a high worth place. Dubai is playing it smartly by becoming a global player too/ The amount of money lying in the chequing accounts in the region is above $6 billion and that offers an amazing growth potential for the region.

Dubai is moving into the right direction. The bubble doesn’t exist if you know what your doing, because fast growth without vision is dangerous but fast growth along with clear vision will just direct you into a better future.

Dubai still needs to look at couple of points:
1- Corporate taxes and lower fees,
2- Offer a smart residency program.
3- Promote itself further to the east rather than Europe only.
4- Invest heavily in neighbouring Arab countries to develop markets for corporations that choose to move to Dubai.

Dubai should be careful about labour issues and human rights issues, and develop more mature institutions in order to cool any worries related to the political system in UAE.

What a wonderful New years evening you can enjoy there.


By: Raed Al-Adl, York Uni - Toronto
Sent: 06:11 AM Thu Mar.22.2007 - CA

#2    Good for some, not all

It's a great place, as long as you're not in the underclass performing the labor to build those tall buildings while far from your family, getting no respect and paid close to nothing.
By: T Schartung,
Sent: 01:01 AM Mon Mar.26.2007 - US

#3    It is a matter of choice

I know this city and its classes of expatriate workers. These are all people coming here with a contract. Their goal is to improve their lives and the hopes of their families. There are many steps on the ladder of self improvement. The climb is hard for everyone.

Dubai Landscape
http://web.mac.com/eflaherty
By: e flaherty,
Sent: 01:28 PM Mon Mar.26.2007 - AE

#4    Dubai

As one who has spent a number of years in the Middle East and visited Dubai off and on, I can testify to the vision of its rulers, and their objective to make it a top-class world business destination. What I am not sure of is their commitment to human rights, democratic values, free expression and lack of commitment to regulatory oversight.
By: CB Murali,
Sent: 04:00 AM Tue Mar.27.2007 - IN

#5    From Services to Experiences

It is interesting that along with trying to attract services, Dubai is also striving to become an experience economy. The Palms, The World and those projects are diversifying the "economy type" to move beyond services to experiences. If the world economy gets products from China, and services from India, experiences will come from the Middle East.
http://www.ideasareorange.com/2007/03/middle_east_meg.html
By: Andres Naranjo,
Sent: 11:48 PM Wed Mar.28.2007 - CO

#6    Dubai and Hong Kong

There have been other free economic zones in the past, not all were as successful as Dubai or Hong Kong. This is in part due to the supply of (foreign) capital particulalry from the countaries in the gulf region, but also servicing the demand by other foreign companies -- European firms in particular. There is an incentive for both the supply and demand to continue. Ordinarily one would say, this is one of the advantages smaller countries, that can more readily control costs and lower economic barriers, hold over their larger counter parts; even in a region with a tradition of surplus. I think part of it may not be so much economies of scales rathers scales of control.
By: Esfandiar Bandari,
Sent: 12:37 AM Thu Mar.29.2007 - US

#7    The Construction

The pace of consutruction is quite maddeneing and has brought a lot of chaos to traffic and lives. The projects are basically for the rich and put a lot of pressure on the middle classes, which are all expats. What will happen if these people cannot make any money -- the basic purpose of being there in first place...
By: Farrukh Zaheer,
Sent: 07:50 AM Fri Mar.30.2007 - AE

#8    Basic human right and respect

If Dubai aspires to become the regional hub for business, finance, leisure and culture, it needs to stamp out poor working and living conditions for the thousands of workers in the construction industry. These low-paid workers from Asia are treated as neo-slaves and indentured labor. If Dubai wants to be a model and benchmark for development for the other countries, there should be more fairness and transparency. The government does not provide sufficient rights for the poor workers, and always sides with the middlemen and entrepreneurs.
By: Philippe Wing, Foyle
Sent: 07:41 AM Tue Apr.03.2007 - GB

#9    An Experiment to Observe

I think Dubai is a really good experiment to observe. No country ever has been developed at such breakneck speed, which brings with it its share of issues, but nonetheless makes it a fascinating subject. Interested readers can go through latest happenings in Dubai at this blog:
http://dubainformationpoint.blogspot.com/index.html
By: Dubai Information,
Sent: 03:47 AM Wed Apr.25.2007 - AE

#10    The construction madness

I have seen Dubai grow and expand from 1994 till date..Dubai definitely has outstanding services and a desire to grow, develop into a trade and tourist destination. But expanding with no limits and boundaries would strain the existing natural energy resources as well as the other resources required to maintain and sustain the giant hotels, buildings, malls, restuarants. This raises a question: When the need of the hour is to conserve resources, then as global responsible citizens why can't we stop this madness of expansion and construction?
By: kanika bhalla, NCO
Sent: 07:30 PM Sun Apr.27.2008 - -
Comments are only open for the first 30 days after publishing.

Back to Top