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After securing a powerful electoral mandate last week for a second five-year term, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi has a unique opportunity to embrace economic reforms without populist hues. This is also an imperative because economic factors will decide India’s power in its subcontinent and elsewhere, according to experts at the University of Pennsylvania and elsewhere.
The results of the latest election show that India’s voters are willing to shrug off the lackluster economic performance of the Modi government’s first term that began in 2014 and give him a second chance, the experts noted. Modi 2.0 has its task cut out: Unemployment is at a 45-year high; acute agrarian distress has caused farmer suicides; the banking system is weak and undercapitalized with poor credit disbursements; and the economy continues to suffer painful effects of the November 2016 demonetization of high-value currencies and the introduction of a unified indirect tax regime in mid-2017.
The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) stormed back to power in an unexpected show of strength in elections to the Lok Sabha, the lower house of the Indian parliament, held in April and May. As many have noted, this represents the world’s greatest exercise in democracy; some 600 million of an eligible 900 million voters participated, including an estimated 45 million young people who were voting for the first time. The NDA won 353 seats of the 542 seats that went to polls in the 543-seat Lok Sabha; authorities canceled the election in one constituency after tax officials found a large stash of unaccounted cash in a politician’s house. The BJP won 303 seats, 21 more than it did in 2014; the NDA added 17 seats between the two elections.
These elections, among the most divisive and fractious in recent times, were a contest between Modi and Rahul Gandhi, president of the Indian National Congress, the prime ministerial candidate proposed by a coalition of BJP’s rivals. The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance won just 90 seats, though these were 30 more than in 2014. The Congress Party won 52 seats, eight more than in 2014. Gandhi himself lost his seat in Amethi in Uttar Pradesh, which had been a Congress stronghold for three decades. He, however, won an election in Wayanad in Kerala state, another constituency from which he had contested, so he will return to Parliament. Three days after the elections, Gandhi accepted responsibility for the party’s electoral rout and offered to step down. And, as was widely expected, the Congress leadership did not accept his resignation.
Pivoting Politically and Economically
The BJP’s continuation in power marks “a historic turning point for India politically, and perhaps eventually economically [as well],” notes Marshall Bouton, acting director and visiting scholar at the Center for the Advanced Study of India at the University of Pennsylvania. (He spoke about the elections on May 24 on the Knowledge@Wharton radio show on SiriusXM; listen to the podcast at the top of this page.)
The results also have the seeds of an “economic turning point” since most voters seemed to ignore the previous Modi government’s disappointing performance on the economy. Bouton recalled that when the Modi government came to power in 2014, it had promised “Sabka Vikas,” or economic growth for all. Those hopes were unfulfilled, he pointed out.
“Younger India has aspirations for a stronger India and a stronger person representing India, and they’re willing to give [Modi] a second chance.” –Marshall Bouton
The demonetization exercise in 2016 had overnight sucked out 86% of the cash in circulation and was debilitating for businesses of all sizes, especially small and medium enterprises and the informal sector, which could not easily switch to a cashless, digital system. It shaved off at least 2 percentage points from the country’s GDP growth rate, according to a study by the National Bureau of Economic Research. It also slowed credit disbursements from banks, which were already hurting from an overhang of bad loans and a liquidity crunch. Moreover, industrial capacity utilization dropped to a quarterly average of less than 75% last year from 83% in 2011.
The unemployment rate reached a 45-year high of 6.1% in 2017-2018, according to an expose by the Business Standard newspaper, based on data from the government-run National Statistical Commission. The government allegedly sought to suppress publication of the data, leading to the resignation of two NSC members. Government programs launched with fanfare such as Mudra Yojana, aimed to provide funding for small and micro-level enterprises, have struggled to meet their goals. Businesses also faced teething pains in switching over to the Goods and Services Tax introduced in July 2017. The GST sought to replace an assortment of state and central indirect taxes on goods and services with a unified, single tax structure, but suffered from shoddy implementation.
Against that backdrop of “a very mixed record” of the Modi government’s economic performance, “none of us thought this outcome was likely … [although it] was on the spectrum of possibilities,” said Bouton. “We all thought the BJP would take a big haircut in this election because Modi had raised huge expectations in the 2014 campaign about job creation, better governance and so forth – most of which were disappointing.”
Bouton believes the election results show that “younger India has aspirations for a stronger India and a stronger person representing India, and they’re willing to give [Modi] a second chance.”
A Matter of Identity
According to Bouton, a defining aspect of the election was that Indians were looking for a single national leader, and “a desire for a clearer representation of what it means to be Indian.” Those sentiments ran deep and were clearly widespread as evidenced by the record voter turnout of 67%.
Those sentiments also made Modi an obvious choice for many voters. “Nobody could compare to Modi in terms of his political domination of the landscape in India – certainly no regional leader and of course not even Rahul Gandhi,” said Bouton, adding that Gandhi consistently put it in “a very lackluster performance” as the leader of the Congress Party. State-level regional parties also did not have the organizational strength that could compare with that of the BJP, he added.
“There is a new political culture in which people in India are looking first and foremost for a leader with whom they can identify, and who in their minds embodies their aspirations – their political aspirations, their social aspirations and their economic aspirations,” notes Bouton. “That allowed Modi to make the argument that he is that man.”
One survey showed that 32% of BJP voters would not have voted for the NDA if Modi had not been the prime ministerial candidate, according to Milan Vaishnav, director and senior fellow in the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He was speaking at a panel discussion hosted by the Brookings Institution after the election results. “This idea that Modi is a decisive leader, who is incorruptible, who operates with clean intent and with national interest at heart, is something many voters latched onto,” he said.
“There is a new political culture in which people in India are looking first and foremost for a leader with whom they can identify, and who in their minds embodies their aspirations….” –Marshall Bouton
In the campaigning before the 2014 elections, Modi had promised “Achche Din” or “Good times, good days” and other promises such as weeding out corruption, “[but] this time, none of those promises were made,” Vaishnav noted. “It was all about ‘I am the best person to protect India; I am the Chowkidar, or the watchman for India.’” Bouton points out that Modi seized the opportunity after an attack by a Pakistan-based terrorist group on February 14 in Jammu and Kashmir’s Pulwama district claimed the lives of 40 police personnel. In response, on February 26, the Indian air force deployed Mirage 2000 jets to drop bombs on Balakot, Pakistan. India claimed it had destroyed a terrorist camp and killed several terrorists, a view that Pakistan disputes. These events transformed the key issues on the minds of voters two months before the elections, as Modi and other BJP leaders unleashed waves of nationalist rhetoric, positioning him as a strong leader whose presence was needed to protect India’s security interests.
Exit Congress System, Enter Hindutva
The election outcome represents a turning point politically because of the apparent end of the era where the Congress Party was dominant, either as the party in power or in the Opposition. The 133-year-old Congress Party had embedded itself deep in the Indian electoral psyche, as it had constantly reminded voters that it had led India to independence from British rule in 1947, and that Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi, arguably the most visible leader of the Independence struggle, was a party member.
“This is the first time that we can say for sure that the so-called Congress system based on the Congress party’s dominance in the 1950s, ‘60s, ‘70s and ‘80s with India’s politics is over,” notes Bouton. ‘It is emphatically over and has been replaced by the BJP system, where the BJP and its aspirations and identity now shape the entire Indian political environment.” Citing a map showing the extent of the BJP’s winnings across the country in the latest election, he says, “Practically the entire country is colored orange (or saffron, the BJP’s party color), except for the very farthest southern states and a little bit of the east coast southeastern belt of India.”
The reasons for that shift are clear to see in retrospect. Over the past 30 years that the BJP began to get political traction in India, “the Congress system partly died from old age,” says Bouton. “It had just run out of ideas and compelling political messages for the people of India.”
Another factor that contributed to the Congress Party’s decline is that the so-called Nehru-Gandhi dynasty had dominated it throughout, leaving it with few other national-level leaders. The lineage began with freedom fighter and independent India’s first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, who passed the mantle to his daughter Indira Gandhi (no relation to Mohandas Gandhi). Next came her sons Sanjay and Rajiv, daughter-in-law Sonia, grandson Rahul and most recently her granddaughter Priyanka.
As the Gandhi family’s spell over Indian politics “weakened steadily over the last 20 or 30 years, along came a new definition of what it means to be Indian,” notes Bouton. The Independence movement and the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty sought to project India as “a secular nation in which many religious, linguistic and ethnic identities could co-exist easily,” he notes. “That is now being questioned and indeed has been undercut by the argument that India is essentially a Hindu nation.”
The idea of a Hindu nation is not as much rooted in religion as it is a question of national identity, according to Bouton. That identity has manifested itself as Hindutva, a nationalistic term used to convey a sense of Hindu identity. As Hindus represent 80% of India’s population of about 1.32 billion, the advance of Hindutva also raises questions about the future of minorities in India, he says. Muslims account for about 14% of India’s population. In a speech after the elections, Modi stressed that minorities in India should not have to live any longer in fear.
The Next Five Years
How will the new Modi government channel the “extraordinary mandate” he has secured? According to Bouton, notwithstanding the pains that followed demonetization and GST, Modi appears to have the business community on his side, he notes. “The business community is thrilled [at BJP’s win] because above all, it values stability and certainty.”
“Sectoral ministries such as the ministry of fertilizers, mines, heavy industries, IT, textiles and steel are targets for regulatory capture by well-organized industry interests.” –Ravi Aron
Signs of business support for Modi were evident long before the elections; the BJP went into the contest with significantly deeper pockets than the Congress or other rivals. According to a report in The Guardian, the Association for Democratic Reforms estimates that “the BJP took in more than 73% of the donations declared by India’s seven largest political parties in 2017-18. The ruling party spent more than 260 million rupees on advertisements on Facebook, YouTube, Google and Instagram compared with 35 million rupees by the Congress.”
Bouton notes that while the business community was apprehensive about some actions of the previous Modi government, it also had “a desire to avoid a messy outcome in this election that would have produced an equally messy coalition government with a lot of uncertainty.” The stock markets cheered the election results. India’s benchmark index, the Sensex, gained nearly 450 points to levels of 39,530 in the subsequent eight trading sessions. The rupee, too, gained in value. However, both the stock index and the rupee later declined since the markets recognize that the Indian economy continues to face formidable challenges and uncertainty continues to hover over the world economy because of trade disputes.
Now that Modi has secured his political position, he may devote more attention to economic affairs. “Many expect or hope that Modi in his second term will return to his economic reforms-based governance that he started with right after 2014, and that he will renew some of those reform efforts such as in the land markets and labor markets,” says Bouton. He also expects measures “to improve the status of agriculture” and address agrarian distress.
Ravi Aron, professor at the Johns Hopkins Carey Business School, points to three key areas in which the new government could prioritize economic reforms: labor reforms; divestment and privatization of state-owned enterprises; and unwinding protectionist policies that restrict foreign direct investment.
Labor reforms could address flaws in the Industrial Disputes Act “and the resulting inflexible labor laws [that] have choked the growth of manufacturing labor in India for more than 40 years now,” Aron says. “The extreme inflexibility has made employers very reluctant to hire workers and has created perverse incentives for substitution of labor by capital.” For example, the Industrial Disputes Act requires businesses that employ 100 or more workers to seek prior permission from the government before retrenching workers or closing down their establishments, according to a report that argues for more flexibility in labor laws.
Aron, however, does not expect the Modi government “to do anything” beyond “slightly cosmetic changes” with labor reforms. “There is no political will to take on narrow special interests, or labor unions, that are highly organized and entrenched,” he notes.
Aron points out that the government could also proceed with divestment and privatization of some two dozen public sector undertakings (PSUs) that already has cabinet approval. Privatizing PSUs will release capital for investment in areas like education and health care. It could also help bring improved performance of PSUs, he adds. “Chronic production inefficiencies and poor returns on invested capital plague these PSUs. As a result, they increase the costs of inputs and lead to lower capacity utilization and a high-cost, low-efficiency economy.”
Finally, Aron sees opportunities in select industries for greater private sector involvement and a reduced government role that is limited to monitoring. “Sectoral ministries such as the ministry of fertilizers, mines, heavy industries, IT, textiles and steel are targets for regulatory capture by well-organized industry interests,” he notes.
Attracting Foreign Investors
India could attract more private capital from the U.S. and other countries “if Mr. Modi uses this opportunity to make India a more attractive place to invest,” according to Bouton. He credited Modi with helping India improve its rank in the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business index over the last five years; India’s now ranks 77th among 190 countries compared with 134th in 2014.
However, India needs to do much more to become business-friendly. “It’s still one of the most complicated and difficult places to do business in,” says Bouton. “There would have to be a very substantial further liberalizing of the investment environment.”
Specifically, there is a compelling need to unwind protectionist policies that restrict FDI, especially in retailing, Aron says. “Indian policy makers have created a bewildering array of policy distinctions between single brand, multi-brand, brick and mortar and online, online marketplaces and wholesale cash and carry businesses,” he adds. “These are largely protectionist policies meant to help domestic businesses.”
“There is no political will to take on narrow special interests, or labor unions, that are highly organized and entrenched.” –Ravi Aron
Regulatory easing would also help. Aron points to e-commerce rules that impose limits on the types of businesses that online retailers could undertake. “This is an area where the government can move swiftly and without fear of political or populist backlash.”
India has also failed to capitalize on the ongoing U.S.-China trade war, according to Bouton. “The lost opportunity there is particularly painful when you consider that American companies that have invested heavily in China over the last 30 years are now looking for other places to put their investments and to put their supply chains,” he says. “India could benefit enormously from that new situation. But it’s going to need to move very aggressively to make that possible.”
For global investors, Bouton believes the best way to tap into opportunities in India is to cater to its “very aspirational near middle-class or middle class” population. It also helps that “the consumer sector is least affected by government regulation and intrusion,” he adds. “In the last two or three years, the big U.S. investments in India have all been in the consumer sector. That’s the surest way to get a piece of the Indian economy and of its growth trajectory without getting hobbled by regulation.”
Bouton says the Modi government could boost such investments by pulling back from protectionist measures that hinder foreign investments. Commenting on Modi’s “Make in India” campaign, where global companies were invited to set up manufacturing facilities in India, he notes: “If he wants to do that, he’s got to reverse course and again liberalize the investment environment, in which case it becomes possible for American and other companies that are making in China and Vietnam and elsewhere to come and make in India.”
Future Challenges
To be sure, Modi faces constraints in implementing economic reforms. “There are very few public resources available right now for the government to provide, for instance, a fiscal stimulus,” Bouton says. He notes that India’s PSUs have limited resources and the government does not have the luxury of stretching its current account balance. “Many in India are calling for a big fiscal stimulus at this point, but that’s going to be very difficult for [Modi] to do without substantially increasing the current account deficit.”
Modi will be able to push through legislation with the NDA’s dominance in the Lok Sabha and potentially the Rajya Sabha (the upper house of Parliament) as well. However, it will have to depend on individual states. “A lot of economic policy is implemented at the state level in India and that makes it much more complex to bring about real results,” says Bouton.
The biggest challenge the new Modi government faces is the slump, or anemic growth, in private investment. A large part of that is because many Indian companies are nursing high debt burdens and are in the process of deleveraging. Those high debt loads have saddled many banks, especially public sector banks, with nonperforming assets large enough to prevent substantial new lending. The government would need to undertake a massive recapitalization of public sector banks in order to stimulate private investment, but it faces an uphill task on that front, Bouton notes.
According to Aron, the Modi government should try to tackle the toughest economic reforms in the first year of its new term. “The opposition is in disarray and the next election is at least four years away,” he says. He notes that benefits from investments in education and healthcare could accrue to the government within its five-year term.
Relations with Neighbors
India’s desire to strengthen its relationships with its neighbors in South Asia, especially Pakistan, also hinges on its economic might, according to Bouton. “The single most important thing Prime Minister Modi can do to enable India’s strong participation in the international system, and in particular to gain leverage in his relationships with India’s neighbors, would be to improve the economy,” he says. He believes that India should be able to achieve a GDP growth rate higher than the 7%-7.5% bracket it has been at for the last few years. “It should be in the 8% or 9% or even 10% bracket.” However, the degree of success India has in improving its relations with its neighbors depends also “on the character of the regime in that country, whether in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, the Maldives or Nepal,” he adds.
“The single most important thing Prime Minister Modi can do to enable India’s strong participation in the international system … would be to improve the economy.” –Marshall Bouton
Among its neighbors, India’s biggest challenge is with Pakistan. Bouton notes that while Imran Khan, Pakistan’s prime minister, publicly congratulated Modi on his victory on May 23, the very same day Pakistan launched a ballistic missile.
“Pakistan has not admitted to India’s pre-eminence in the subcontinent and one cannot foresee the day when they will,” Bouton says. “The only way to change that over time is for India to have such a preponderance of power in the region.” Secondly, India ought to make it clear to Pakistanis that they would benefit from greater integration with a dynamic Indian economy, he adds. He expects Modi to reach out to Pakistan with “an olive branch” in the coming months.
Economic success is the best lever Modi could use also in trying to build a more balanced relationship with China. The two countries had a tense face-off in the summer of 2017 over China’s military presence in the Doklam Plateau, a border area between Bhutan and China that India sees as a buffer zone. “The two countries nearly came to blows,” Bouton says of that episode. “[Modi] needs to keep things from getting too shaky. I think he appreciates [China’s president] Xi Jinping has had the same objective. But the rivalry is still very intense, and it will continue.”
India’s ties with the U.S. are also critical, and both Modi and Trump are convinced of that, says Bouton. “President Trump has clearly put a lot of stock in the relationship and has moved on a number of directions to ensure it continues to develop, although not so much on the economic front,” he adds. “There has been some nervousness on the Indian side about whether President Trump would be consistent in his hitherto positive approach to India. Hopefully, they can now feel more confident about that.”
The Lure of Populism
While Modi is the first prime minister in almost 50 years to lead his party to win a majority in successive elections, he has done so by pushing forward a Hindu nationalist agenda. His re-election also continues a global trend of populist candidates winning top seats, including President Trump in the U.S., Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil and Joko Widodo in Indonesia. Therein lies a danger: “Populists are highly skilled at staying in power and pose an acute danger to democratic institutions,” according to a report in The Atlantic, based on a study of 46 populist leaders or parties worldwide between 1990 and the present.
Modi should embrace hard-nosed economic reforms and not succumb to politically expedient populism, Bouton notes. In a recent op-ed article in The New York Times, columnist Ruchir Sharma noted that although Modi in 2014 led the BJP to power “on a Reaganesque promise of ‘minimum government,’ … he has wielded the tools of state control at least as aggressively as his predecessors.” He noted that during the latest campaign, Modi “went toe to toe with rivals, vying to see who could offer the most generous welfare programs, and it appears to have worked.”
Bouton notes that although many expected Modi to be “a consistent powerful reformer” back in 2014, he turned in a more populist direction “because in India, if you want to get reelected, that’s the expectation voters have of you.” The government had its back to the wall, facing criticism that it had failed to deliver on its promises of doubling farm incomes, raising minimum support prices for crops and making procurement more efficient.
Not surprisingly, the government’s interim budget unveiled weeks before the election included a Rs. 75,000 crore ($10.6 billion) package of cash handouts to small farmers, where each would get Rs. 6,000 ($88) a year. “Having criticized the previous Congress-led government for pushing money into airplanes and dropping it over the farm sector, he’s done exactly the same in the last year to try to quiet the agrarian distress before the election,” Bouton says.
But now, with the election behind him, Modi may not feel the need for populist policies. If he wants to be “truly transformative,” he must focus on reforms that will power the Indian economy in the near term into a substantial middle-income economy, and eventually into a First World economy, according to Bouton. “At the same time, for political reasons, [he has to ensure] Indians feel confident about what the government is doing for them. It’s a very delicate and difficult transition that must be made. One can only hope that now [that he is] so empowered, Modi will feel able to try that.”
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5 Comments So Far
Anumakonda Jagadeesh
I read with interest the article.
Narendra Modi is the most powerful and popular Non-Congress Prime Minister. N the 2014 Lok Sabha Election thanks to Narendra Modi’s charisma BJP got the power singularly. But what is astonishing is almost landslide victory for BJP and NDA in 2019(351 Seats).
There were over 7o million first time voters who were attracted to Narendra Modi’s plan for employment generation. His planned pro-poor policies and programmes further gave impetus for the spectacular victory. This massive mandate “Exacts Commitment”.
No PM in the history of Independent India is CRITICISMFREE.. Those in power always attract Criticism from Opposition parties. What is to be seen is in the circumstances whether the Government performed well or not. Even the great Economist Dr.Manmohan Sigh has to face much criticism as PM.
Narendra Modi has brought in some social reforms and economic reforms whose results will be seen in the next 10 years.
What are the top achievements of Modi Government?
Interesting Facts taken from Quora:
“When the king becomes stronger and controls the nation, petty thief, terrorist, traitors feel the heat and complain of intolerance in the society”. – Chanakya.
The following are the top ten achievements of Modiji.
1. Allowing free hands to CBI, ED and other investigative agencies .
2. Demonetisation which emptied the black money coffers of corrupt political parties which aggravated their anger against Modi.
3. Introducing GST with such a tight system that tax evasion is made difficult or impossible. This is the reason why the businessmen who all along evaded tax payment/paid less tax by bribing the concerned officials are in up in arms.
4. Ensuring the benefits like subsidy reaches the actual beneficiary making the middle men jobless.Ex. Fertilizer subsidy through Neem coating and Gas subsidy directly to bank accounts.
5.. Forcing the Banks to name and shame people who have borrowed from banks hugely and not repaid/nor had intention to repay. The crux in this silent invisible move is in all the cases UPA’s hand exposed from Mallaya to Nirav Modi who are on the run. In this issue I bet when legal action progresses number of congress leaders too will have to face the heat.
6.. Above all making India a “Congress Mukht Bharat” by winning in 21 states and making congress a fringe player making it loosing deposits repeatedly in every election thus emptying the cadre and leaders strength.
These are the further achievements of Modi in descending order.
1. Surgical Strike on 7 terrorists havens in PoK, killing nearly 35 terrorists.
2. Demonetisation
3. Opening of Bank accounts to the poor. 240 million bank accounts have been opened under Jan Dan Yojana. All of them have been given Rupay cards.
4. Passage of GST in both houses of parliament.
5. Neem coating of Urea
6. Supply of free gas cylinders under Ujwala scheme to BPL card holders. Five crore cylinders are proposed to be supplied.
7. Launching of Mudra Bank with a capital of Rs 20000 crores to meet the demands of loans to micro, small and medium entrepreneurs and farmers.
8. Launching of Make in India, Digital India and Skill India with focus bon defense and electronics, but mainly to generate jobs.
9. Electrifying the entire country by covering the un-electrified remote villages which number 19000. Already 11000 have been covered. Balance 8000 will be covered by March 2019.
10. Foreign equity cap raised to 49% in defense and 74% for technology transfer. In Rail infrastructure it is unlimited.
In the past we have seen how coalition party Governments fell before completing full term.
Indian Economy is on the rise and it is time the Nation Needs a powerful Leader and Strong Government at the Centre.
If we analise the by elections BJP had on an average more than 40% vote sharte. If BJP gets the same votes and being the party ruling in the largest number of States. Modi BJP Government at Centre is a foregone conclusion which became trie in the results of 2019 lok sabha election..
Lok Sabha Election is different from State Assembly Elections. Because of political compulsions many vote for a different party other than BJP at assembly level but may vote for BJP for Lok Sabha Election. Even among Southern States like Andhra Pradesh,Tamil Nadu,Telangana and Karnataka BJP has indirectly a strong party supporter. Even in Kerala and West Bengal BJP may make a dent.
In the second term of Narendra Modi the country’s economy is poised to go to further heights and rural prosperity achieved through pro-poor policies.
Dr.A.Jagadeesh Nellore(AP),India
Joy J
Following are few achievements of Modi for the last five years. This data shows that it will be nearly impossible for any leader in any democratic country to win a second term with such poor performance. This clearly shows Modi has won the election using Hindutva polarization, which is further confirmed by the victory of a Hindutva terrorism suspect, Pragya Thakur. Unlike Modi-RSS/BJP, No other political parties in a democratic country will allow a terrorism suspect, who is on bail, to contest in a democratic election.
MODI’S DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS
1. India’s debt under Modi govt surges 50% to Rs 82 lakh crore – Business News. India Today. January 19, 2019
2. Joblessness at 45-year high, says official report kept under wraps | Business Standard News. January 31, 2019
3. Jharkhand’s Starvation Deaths Raise Questions About India’s Welfare Schemes – The Wire. January 11, 2019
4. Jharkhand: 18 People Died Of ‘Starvation’, State Govt Denies Responsibility. The Logical Indian January 2019
5. About 45 Hunger-Related Deaths Reported in Past One Year, Say Activists | NewsClick. December 7, 2018
6. Starvation deaths in Delhi: India is great but we Indians are definitely not. National Herald July 2018
7. Three girls dying of hunger in Delhi shows rats in India have a better life DailyO. June 26, 2018.
8. Survey that started after starvation deaths touches 1 lakh | Cities News, The Indian Express. December 5, 2018
8. India has one-third of world’s stunted children: Global nutrition report – The Economic Times. November 29, 2018
10. Living illiterate, dying early’: UN report highlights plight of India’s poor and Dalit women – The Hindu. February 2018
11. Thousands of farmers from across India protest in national capital against ‘anti-farmer’ policies | India News, The Indian Express. September 6, 2018
12. Months after Modicare launch, 74% of specialist doctor posts found vacant in rural India. The Print December 2018
13. Millions of poor city children worse off than rural peers: UNICEF – Times of India. November 27, 2018
13. Half of India’s malaria deaths occur among tribal communities — Quartz India. November 29, 2018
14. Survey that started after starvation deaths touches 1 lakh | Cities News, The Indian Express. December 5, 2018
MODI’S INCOME INEQUALITY ACHIEVEMENTS
1. India’s high GDP growth is hiding an unemployment crisis — Quartz India. September 26, 2018
2. Income inequality in India: Top 10% upper caste households own 60% wealth | Business Standard News. January 14, 2019
3. Nine Richest Indians Now Own Wealth Equivalent to Bottom 50% of the Country – The Wire. January 21, 2019
4. India’s ‘obscene inequality’ may lead to ‘social collapse’, report says. Irish Times. January 23, 2019
5. India’s income inequality hurts women the most, Oxfam says — Quartz India. January 22, 2019
6. How government policies in India and China are widening income inequality — Quartz India. April 2018
7. The proof behind India’s rising income inequality | india news | Hindustan Times. August 2018
8. Cost of Inequality in India May Be High, but Doing Nothing About It Is More Expensive – The Wire. July 2018
9. Income inequality gets worse; India’s top 1% bag 73% of the country’s wealth, says Oxfam. Business Today January 2018
10. Why inequality in India is at its highest level in 92 years – BBC News. September. 2017
11. Richest 10% of Indians own over 3/4th of wealth in India. Livemint. October 2018
12. Increasing Economic Disparity In India Is Making It Impossible For The Poor To Have A Good Life | HuffPost India. December 2017
13. Wealth India: Study throws light on rising wealth & consumption inequality in India. Economic Times. December 2018
14. Increasing Economic Disparity In India Is Making It Impossible For The Poor To Have A Good Life | HuffPost India. December 2017
15. India remains a poor nation with high income and wealth inequality. The Telegraph. October 2018
INDIA’s WORLD RANKING
2. Modi’s India slips in Democracy Index from 27th rank in 2014 to 41 now. National Herald. January 19, 2019
3. India is the fourth-worst country in the world for religious violence (2017 Pew Research Report).
4. India ranks 136th out of 180 countries in 2017 World Press
5. Freedom Index and India was considered third most dangerous place for journalists after Iraq and Syria.
6. India ‘3rd most dangerous’ nation for journalists after Iraq and Syria | india | Hindustan Times
7. Press freedom rankings: India slips 3 places to 136, ‘Modi’s nationalism’ blamed | india news | Hindustan Times
8. India is the fourth-worst country in the world for religious violence – Quartz
MODI & RELIGIOUS TOLERANCE
1. Narendra Modi’s Double Standards On Terrorism | HuffPost India. March 2015
2. Will Modi stop India’s cow terrorists from killing Muslims? Washington Post July 2018
3.BJP crows on ‘saffron terror’. The Telegraph India April 2018
3. Hindutva Terrorists Roam Free and Human Rights Activists Jailed: Story of Modi’s Bharat | NewsClick. August 2018!
4. Trump should figure out a deal to protect Christians in India | TheHill. June 2017
5. Christmas violence and arrests shake Indian Christians | World news | The Guardian. December 2017
6. Narendra Modi blamed in rise of India’s Christian persecution – Washington Times. March 2018
7. Religious persecution the new normal in India- La Croix International. May 2018
8. Report Shows It’s Increasingly Dangerous To Be A Christian In Many Countries : NPR. January 2018
9. Christians, Sikhs Being Persecuted In India, Believe British MPs; To Take It Up With Modi During Commonwealth Meet. Outlook India. March 2018
10. Indian leader boasts of tolerance amid growing persecution – Persecution – WORLD. May 2017
11. US Congress Urges India’s Modi to Protect Christians, Condemn Attacks on Minorities. August 2018
12. Modi’s party stokes anti-Muslim violence in India, report says | South China Morning Post. June 2017
13. Violence Against Christians in India: A Decade After Kandhamal | The Diplomat. August 2018
14. Christians In India Continue To Live In Fear, Despite Modi’s Promises Of Equality | HuffPost. December 2017
15. India’s PM Narendra Modi may be popular, but it’s bad for democracy – The Globe and Mail. August 2017
16. Christian enclave in India fears violence as Hindus press for conversions – The Washington Post. December 2014
17. Modi’s Cash Crackdown Failed, Indian Bank Data Shows. New York Times August 2018
28. Brits not happy about Indian PM Narendra Modi being in the UK – here’s why. Metro Co UK November 2015
19..Indian Prime Minister Modi confronted by angry protests in London | Article [AMP] | Reuters. April. 2018
’20. Indians Walked Down ‘The Ladder’ Under Modi. Forbes. September 2018
21. Dalit, women’s groups plan protests during PM Modi’s visit to Britain | India News, The Indian Express. April 2018
MODI’S HONESTY
1. Lies, damned lies and statistics during ‘Achhe Din’ | Deccan Herald. February 17, 2019
2. The lies of Narendra Modi | The Express Tribune. March 5, 2019
3. Fact-Check: Modi Is Lying About the Houses Built Under PMAY | NewsClick. February 6, 2019
4. Ayushman Bharat: Seven things that prove PM Modi’s lying to India. National Herald November 2018
5. “The Lie Lama’ Posters Surface After A Series Of ‘Factual Errors’ In PM Modi’s Poll Speeches – Indiatimes. May 11, 2018
6. Half truths and whole lies – ten times PM Modi misled the nation in 2017 – Alt News. January 2018
7. Modi lying over OROP: Former Servicemen – We For News English | DailyHunt Lite. December 2018
8. Narendra Modi Lying Over One Rank One Pension’ | The Sentinel. December 2018
9. What Prime Minister Narendra Modi lying in Parliament means for India. DailyO. February 2018
19. Interview: Modi’s Claim That MSP Increase Is Historic Is a Historic Lie, says Yogendra Yadav – The Wire. July 2018
11. Modi lying, never had friendship with him: Ahmed Patel – The Shillong Times. May 3, 2014
13. Why did Modi lie,’ asks angry twitterati after he admits he is married – Firstpost. April 2014
14. Narendra Modi lied hundred times of about his Marital Status. Times of Assam April 2014
15. Did Narendra Modi Lie? Forbes. June 11, 2013
16. Microsoft survey: India topping fake news menace globally, more pains likely ahead of polls. Money Control. February 5, 2019
17.Narendra Modi app: PM Modi’s personal app promotes fake news factory ‘The India Eye’. Scroll February 7, 2019
18. Narendra Modi App Has A Fake News Problem | HuffPost India. January 27, 2019
18. Is Narendra Modi’s NaMo app is spreading fake news? A journalist finds a disturbing pattern. Scroll January 2019
20 Ahead of 2019 Elections, BJP Opens Floodgates of Fake News | NewsClick. January 2019
21. Pro-Modi posts account for major chunk of fake news: BBC report- The New Indian Express. November 2018
22. Nationalism a driving force behind fake news in India, research shows – BBC News. November 12, 2018
Joy J
The greatest challenge for anyone to get “true data” directly from Modi and his govt is quite challenging. It’s not the question of non-disclosure factor, it is the trust factor, whether one can believe the data or not. One example is recent controversies around job growth or unemployment data. This may not be surprising because RSS, parent organization and policy advisor of BJP, is well-known for manipulating or fabricating data or information for the sake of glorifying Hindutva. RSS has fabricated or subverted Indian history to Hindu mythology that suits RSS Hindutva agendas. RSS propaganda machinery is filled with fabricated information, which includes anything, even well-established scientific data. Therefore, trust factor related to data remains quite challenging.
Sources:
1. Yes, India’s Economy Is Growing, but Can You Trust the Data? New York Times May 30, 2019
2. Over 100 economists, academics accuse Modi govt of interfering with data agencies VCCircle Mar 15, 2019 ·
3. If Modi is accused of manipulating GDP data, he has only himself to blame Financial Express Mar 15, 2019
4. Elections 2019: Narendra Modi’s economic record is abysmal. No statistical jugglery can hide that. Scroll Mar 24, 2019
5. Under Narendra Modi, India is in danger of joining the ranks of data manipulators The Print Nov 29, 2018
6. Modi Government First In India’s History To Manipulate Data, Says Yashwant Sinha Outlook India Feb 1, 2019 ·
7. GDP Data Revision: Eat Your Cake, Don’t Cook It – BloombergQuint December 14, 2018
8. Why the Modi government is obscuring data on unemployment Caravan Magazine Dec 31, 2018 ·
9. IDon’t Believe India’s 7% GDP Growth Rate – Not With Demonetisation I Don’t Forbes March 1, 2017
10. India Goes Back to the Future—Again—With Economic Growth Revisions Wall Street Journal Nov 29, 2018 ·
Few more recent reports on trends in Indian economy:
1. India may lose spot as fastest-growing economy as PM Modi’s second term begins | VCCircle May 30, 2019
2. Modi under pressure to deliver as India’s economy falters Financial Times May 27, 2019
3. Eight indicators tell us what is going wrong in Indian economy right now and why bad days await next government – Firstpost
4. State of the Economy-IX: After consumption slowdown, India set to face wider trade deficit | Business Standard News May 26, 2019
5. Economic growth, inequality and jobs: India Tomorrow part 5 podcast transcript The Conversation May 7, 2019
6. Suspension of preferential trade status for India under GSP is ‘done deal’: Trump Business Today. May 31, 2019
7. Cars: What slowing car sales reveal about Indian economy?, Auto News, ET Auto May 17, 2019
8. When management of economy is entrusted to novices or tyrants, consequences will soon follow | The Indian Express May 12, 2019
9. Demand slump continues in April: What falling car, two-wheeler sales figures tell us about state of Indian economy – Firstpost May 2, 2019
10. Modi Govt’s One-Size-Fits-All Approach Destroyed Indian Economy, Says P Chidambaram The Quint May 20, 2019
11, India faces difficult trade test amid US-China row, rising protectionism Live Mint May 30, 2019
12. India election 2019: millions of Indian youth are underemployed and going to the polls The Conversation May 6, 2019
13. India’s growth may decelerate further despite election spending | Article [AMP] | Reuters May 1, 2019
Joy J
@Anumakonda Jagadeesh. Please refer to the following reports:
A. Foreign direct investment (FDI) under Modi
1. “Manmohan Singh’s UPA 2 saw an overall increase of 20.02 per cent in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), while in Modi govt, it saw a decline of 3.08 per cent.”
Source: Interim Budget 2019: How 5 years of Modi compare to Manmohan on FDI, foreign exchange reserves – India Today. February 1, 2019
2. India’s foreign direct investment inflows fall amid pre-election uncertainty | Reuters February 25, 2019
3. Modi magic fades as growth in India’s FDI hits a five-year low — Quartz India July 2, 2018
4. FDI inflows on track for first full-year decline under Modi govt. VCCircle Feb 26, 2019 ·
5. Modi government’s ease of doing business efforts failed? FDI in India hits 5-year low The Financial Express Jul 1, 2018
6. “While FDI inflows have shot up under the Modi government, the inflow growth rate has been dipping and FDI as a proportion of GDP had actually peaked under UPA-1”
Source: Who got more FDI – Manmohan or Modi? Business Today. February 1, 2019
7. FDI Up: Government Is Right, But Not When Compared To GDP – BloombergQuint. June 4, 2018
8. PM Modi Calls The World To ‘Make In India,’ But The Initiative Fails To Take Off. Forbes Jul 24, 2017
9. Narendra Modi’s most distinctive economic policies were his worst The Economist Feb 28, 2019 ·
Joy J
@Anumakinda Jagadeesh. Please refer to the following reports:
A. Foreign direct investment (FDI) under Modi
1. “Manmohan Singh’s UPA 2 saw an overall increase of 20.02 per cent in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), while in Modi govt, it saw a decline of 3.08 per cent.”
Source: Interim Budget 2019: How 5 years of Modi compare to Manmohan on FDI, foreign exchange reserves – India Today. February 1, 2019
2. India’s foreign direct investment inflows fall amid pre-election uncertainty | Reuters February 25, 2019
3. Modi magic fades as growth in India’s FDI hits a five-year low — Quartz India July 2, 2018
4. FDI inflows on track for first full-year decline under Modi govt. VCCircle Feb 26, 2019 ·
5. Modi government’s ease of doing business efforts failed? FDI in India hits 5-year low The Financial Express Jul 1, 2018
6. “While FDI inflows have shot up under the Modi government, the inflow growth rate has been dipping and FDI as a proportion of GDP had actually peaked under UPA-1”
Source: Who got more FDI – Manmohan or Modi? Business Today. February 1, 2019
7. FDI Up: Government Is Right, But Not When Compared To GDP – BloombergQuint. June 4, 2018
8. PM Modi Calls The World To ‘Make In India,’ But The Initiative Fails To Take Off. Forbes Jul 24, 2017
9. Narendra Modi’s most distinctive economic policies were his worst The Economist Feb 28, 2019 ·
B. Modi Schemes
1. Rs 200 Cr in 3 Yrs, Yet Women’s Shelters in ‘Deplorable’ Condition The Quint December 24, 2018
2. Skill India: India Today. YouTube video (search for :.be/koFRDiMiG-E
3. Torture, no treatment for mentally ill common in shelter homes’ | Swadhar Greh |The Week December 2018
4. Probe blows lid off women shelter homes: ‘congested jails, mentally ill rolling on floor’ | India News, The Indian Express. December 2018
5. Blot on Khaki: Cop held for kidnapping SWADHAR home inmate | KalingaTV. March 2018
C. Science under Modii
1. India’s Government Is Becoming Increasingly Antiscience – Scientific American February 2018
2. Modi government does not understand the ABCD of science’ – Rediff. October 2015
3. Hindu nationalists claim that ancient Indians had airplanes, stem cell technology, and the internet | Science | AAAS. February 13, 2019
4. Indian scientists urged to speak out about pseudoscience : Nature News & Comment Nature Journal. Nov 7, 2017
5. Scientists, academicians protest against government’s ‘anti-science policies’- The New Indian Express. April 2018
6. Why Science Scares the RSS/BJP: Curious Case of Satyapal Singh | NewsClick. January 2018
7. Protest held in Bengaluru against unscientific statements at Indian Science Congress | The News Minute. January 6, 2018
D. Dubious scientific research under Modi. Need coating of urea is nothing before these scientific claims by Hindu nationalist leaders and scientists.
In 2018, Modi speaking at a gathering of doctors in Mumbai, claimed that Lord Ganesha’s head was joined with the help of ‘plastic surgery’ and the birth of Karna in Mahabharata shows that ancient Indians knew about ‘genetic engineering’.
In Gujarat, children were taught that Hindu God Rama flew the first aeroplane and that stem cell technology was known in ancient India.
Following are some claims made by Indian scientists at the Indian Science Congress 2019 (inaugurated by Modi)
1. Narendra Modi waves: ‘Ravana’s airports’, ‘Modi waves’ leave science congress stunned | India News – Times of India. January 7, 2019
2. Kauravas Were Test-Tube Babies’ and Other Lessons from 106th Session of The Indian Science Congress. News18 January 8, 2019
3. Cows Can Turn Food Into 24-Carat Gold’ & 14 Other Gems From Indian Science Congress. Analytics Indian Magazine January 7, 2018
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4.Indian Science Congress: Geologist claims Brahma discovered dinosaurs, mentioned them in Vedas. Scroll January 7, 2019
5. Einstein, Newton ‘misled’ the world: Unaware of controversial remarks by two speakers, say organisers | India News, The Indian Express. January 6, 2019
6. India had planes and test tube babies thousands of years ago, science conference told. The Telegraph January 7, 2019
7. Dubious Claims About Einstein, Dinosaur, Ancient Jets At Indian Science Congress : Goats and Soda : NPR. January 9, 2019