The social media influencer taps her long nails on the shoe box and declares, “I think these running shoes could be great for narrow feet.”
She is making a recommendation, but she’s also hedging.
“People hedge all the time,” Wharton marketing professor Jonah Berger said. “Whether we are talking to a boss or a colleague, a salesperson talking to a client, a marketer trying to pitch something, or even talking to family members, we often say things like ‘That could work’ or ‘This might be a good approach.’ But how does hedging impact persuasion? And might certain types of hedges be more impactful than others?”
Take going to a mechanic for car repairs. If your mechanic said a repair ‘might’ work, you’d probably be less likely to go for it, and might even find a different mechanic. But are hedges always detrimental?
“Some people hedge out of habit, others because they want to be careful. They want to avoid being attacked for being wrong,” Berger added. “There are lots of reasons people hedge, but regardless of why we do it, might some ways of doing it be more likely to work?”
His latest co-authored study has the answer: Hedging is most persuasive when it involves personal perspective and words that suggest higher likelihood, because it suggests that the communicator is more confident. This specific kind of hedging can put the speaker “in a communications sweet spot,” where they reap the benefits without the backlash if things don’t work out.
The paper, “Effectively Communicating Uncertainty: The Persuasive Impact of Different Types of Hedges,” appears in the Journal of Consumer Psychology. The co-authors are Demi Oba, business administration professor at Harvard Business School, and Reihane Boghrati, information systems professor at Arizona State University.
“Some people hedge out of habit, others because they want to be careful. They want to avoid being attacked for being wrong.”— Jonah Berger
Putting It in Perspective
The professors conducted seven studies to examine the two main aspects of hedging, likelihood and perspective. Likelihood refers to how likely it is that something will happen, and ranges from lower-probability words and phrases (e.g., might, could, it feels like) to higher-probability words (arguably, likely, should). Perspective, on the other hand, refers to whether the hedge is general (it sounds like, probably) or whether communicators attach their personal perspective to it (it sounds like to me, in my opinion).
Despite their different designs, all seven studies yielded consistent results: Higher likelihood hedges, and those that indicate a personal perspective, are more effective because they suggest the communicator is more confident.
“When we hear someone hedge, the more confident we think they are, the more likely we often are to listen to them,” Berger said. “If your mechanic said, ‘Yeah, this repair might work,’ you’d have a lot less confidence than if they said, ‘I believe this repair will solve the problem.’ Personal perspective means they’re taking more ownership, so we’re more likely to be persuaded by what they have to say.”
While the paper found that personal hedges work best for interpersonal communication, the effect was reduced when the communicator was a brand because confidence mattered less. But brands can still leverage the persuasive impact of hedging through anthropomorphized agents. Berger said that’s why many brands are now using the personal approach on social media with influencers who talk directly to the consumer.
“Many brands are trying to figure out how to use social media more effectively,” Berger said. “Word of mouth is extremely persuasive, but consumers don’t always trust brands. So brands are trying to sort out whether they should talk like people, pay others to spread the word, or engage in other activities to boost engagement.”
“Hedging can be a great way to signal that you’re not certain, making others feel more comfortable in sharing their views.”— Jonah Berger
To Hedge or Not to Hedge
Berger said the study shows that hedging can be helpful if done right.
“Don’t hedge just because it’s convenient,” he said. “Hedge with the right amount of uncertainty, or call out the uncertainty.”
For example, Berger said, announcing in a meeting that a colleague’s idea “might not work” isn’t as effective as saying, “This could work, but we need these three things to happen first.” Specifying the uncertainty makes the speaker seem more confident and builds trust with the audience.
To be sure, there are times when hedging undermines persuasion, Berger said. But when used appropriately, it can help boost collaboration, especially in a business setting. If a manager speaks in absolutes, it could make others reluctant to offer their ideas. But hedging changes the dynamic in the room.
“If we’re trying to get people to open up, to share opposing viewpoints, or to get younger members of the team to share their opinions, hedging can be a great way to signal that you’re not certain, making others feel more comfortable in sharing their views,” he said.
