Barbara Mellers

Want Better Forecasting? Silence the Noise

Nov 26, 2019
Public Policy
North America
mic

Scholars have long focused on the effects of bias on the accuracy of predictions. But new research by Wharton’s Barbara Mellers and INSEAD’s Ville Satopӓӓ found that noise is a[…]

Are You a Superforecaster? What Good Decision-makers Have in Common

Mar 07, 2017
Marketing
North America
mic

Research shows that there are certain kinds of people who can forecast correctly most of the time. What traits do they share?

Why Even the Best Forecasters Sometimes Miss the Mark

Forecasters are human, and forecasting models, for all their dispassion, are built by people. But specialists in forecasting say that despite their limitations, they remain a strong improvement over pure[…]

A Better Crystal Ball: Improving the Science of Forecasting

May 13, 2015
Public Policy
North America
video

Wharton's Barbara Mellers discusses what makes some people better prognosticators than others, and how the best forecasters can be given a boost.

Faculty Archive

Want Better Forecasting? Silence the Noise

Are You a Superforecaster? What Good Decision-makers Have in Common

Why Even the Best Forecasters Sometimes Miss the Mark

A Better Crystal Ball: Improving the Science of Forecasting