Abraham Wyner - Faculty Research in Knowledge@Wharton

The Use -- and Misuse -- of Statistics: How and Why Numbers Are So Easily Manipulated

Wed, 02 Apr 2008 17:52:07 EST

When a report prepared by former Senator George J. Mitchell indicated that Roger Clemens and others used illegal, performance-enhancing drugs, a marketing agency prepared a voluminous report that relied on statistics to make the case for Clemens' innocence. But an article written by four Wharton faculty -- Justin Wolfers, Shane Jensen, Abraham Wyner and Eric Bradlow -- questions the methodology used by the marketing agency, noting that the validity of any statistical analysis is only as good as its individual components. And these components, they add, can be easily misinterpreted.

Polling the Polling Experts: How Accurate and Useful Are Polls These Days?

Wed, 14 Nov 2007 15:20:43 EST

Turn on the Internet, pick up your telephone or cell phone, read a newspaper or watch television: No matter what the communication vehicle is, polls and the reporting of poll results are ubiquitous. Yet how accurate are polls? Can they be manipulated? How do the Internet and the proliferation of cell phone users affect both marketing and political polls? And which polls are the most reliable? Knowledge@Wharton interviewed the experts.

Has Major League Baseball Hit a Foul in Its Recent Skirmish with Online Fantasy Leagues?

Wed, 14 Jun 2006 15:41:34 EST

Major League Baseball's decision to square off with CBC Distribution and Marketing, an online baseball fantasy-league operator based in St. Louis, Mo., might make good legal sense, but it's bad for business, according to Wharton faculty and baseball industry spectators. For several years, CBC paid a fee to the Major League Baseball Players Union for the right to use players' names and stats for its virtual leagues, in which fans draft pro players onto imaginary teams and then compete with each other based on their players' statistics. But last year, Major League Baseball Advanced Media bought the Internet and wireless rights to the names and stats from the union, and informed CBC that it wouldn't renew its license. CBC has filed a law suit in response, but the league isn't backing down. By picking a fight with CBC -- and the $1.5 billion fantasy league industry -- baseball risks alienating fans, damaging its brand and sacrificing future revenues for a small gain, experts say.

How Credible Are Polls? Is There a Better Way to Predict Outcomes in Politics and Business

Wed, 03 Nov 2004 16:54:35 EST

This election year's hard-fought presidential race has brought increasing focus on the credibility and methodology of polls - a focus that could have implications for politics, but also for business forecasting, according to Wharton faculty. With growing uncertainty about the value of polls, people are looking more closely at new ways to predict election outcomes - including the use of aggregate poll results, expert opinion surveys and betting markets. "My guess is that polls are the least accurate way of gauging an election," says Wharton marketing professor J. Scott Armstrong.