J. Scott Armstrong - Faculty Research in Knowledge@Wharton

The 'Myth of Market Share': Can Focusing Too Much on the Competition Harm Profitability?

Wed, 24 Jan 2007 15:12:24 EST

Business has long been likened to warfare, according to Wharton marketing professor Scott Armstrong, so it is hardly surprising that companies strive to beat their competitors and wrest away as much market share as possible. But such efforts not only waste time and energy, they can actually be detrimental to the firm's profitability, according to Armstrong. Based on new research and examples from today's business environment, Armstrong and co-author Kesten Green suggest that overemphasis on market share is the wrong approach.

How Credible Are Polls? Is There a Better Way to Predict Outcomes in Politics and Business

Wed, 03 Nov 2004 16:54:35 EST

This election year's hard-fought presidential race has brought increasing focus on the credibility and methodology of polls - a focus that could have implications for politics, but also for business forecasting, according to Wharton faculty. With growing uncertainty about the value of polls, people are looking more closely at new ways to predict election outcomes - including the use of aggregate poll results, expert opinion surveys and betting markets. "My guess is that polls are the least accurate way of gauging an election," says Wharton marketing professor J. Scott Armstrong.

Corporate Boards Should Represent a Broader Community of Interests

Wed, 11 Sep 2002 00:00:00 EST

As the recent proposed sale of Hershey Foods shows, any action a company takes that affects the well-being of its employees and community, among other stakeholders, should be made by a board interested in more than the bottom line. Wharton marketing professor Scott Armstrong urges boards of directors to be democratic and more representative of stakeholder interests. The result, he says, would be fairer and more efficient business decisions.

Forecasting in Conflicts: How to Predict What Your Opponent Will Do

Wed, 13 Feb 2002 00:00:00 EST

J. Scott Armstrong is a marketing professor at Wharton and author of the recent book, Principles of Forecasting. In the article that follows, he talks about role-playing as a tool for business and government leaders who face crucial decisions in situations ranging from military clashes to marketing challenges.

Ice Hockey, Homicide and the Principles of Forecasting

Wed, 29 Aug 2001 00:00:00 EST

In his introduction to Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners, Wharton marketing professor J. Scott Armstrong quotes an edict issued by the Roman Emperor Constantine in 357 A.D. that banned the use of forecasters, among others. �May curiosity to tell the future be silenced forever,� the emperor pronounced. In vain, as it turned out. Forecasting, certainly in the economic arena, is flourishing. Armstrong�s book seeks to make the subject accessible and educational for students, practitioners and researchers.

Role Playing as a Forecasting Tool

Fri, 17 Sep 1999 10:05:16 EST

In business, forecasting is usually used to predict future sales, profits or economic growth. Efforts to anticipate the outcome of more complex situations, such as labor negotiations, are exceedingly difficult. Just how do you forecast situations where the parties� actions and reactions pose a profusion of possible permutations? Such efforts often involve the use of �expert� opinions or �intention� surveys, in which participants are asked how they would act in a certain situation. Research conducted since the mid-1970s by Wharton�s J. Scott Armstrong, however, suggests an alternative. Armstrong provides strong evidence that forecasts based on role-playing sessions can make accurate predictions of human responses to conflict or change.