Role Playing: A Method to Forecast Decisions

Role playing can be used to forecast decisions, such as “how will our competitors respond if we lower our prices?” In using role playing, the administrator asks people to play roles and uses their “decisions” as forecasts. Such an exercise puts subjects in the position of decision makers and can produce a realistic simulation of the interactions among conflicting groups. The basic design principle is that the role-play should match the actual situation in key respects: The role players should be similar to those being represented. The administrator provides short yet comprehensive descriptions and creates realistic surroundings in order to provide a realistic enactment of the situation. Role-players should read instructions for their roles before reading about the situation and should improvise when necessary. Role playing is most effective for predictions when few conflicting parties interact in response to large changes. A review of the evidence showed that role playing was effective in matching results for five of six classic experiments in psychology. In five other studies, researchers compared the accuracy of role playing with that of alternate procedures, typically expert opinions. Role playing was more accurate for predicting decisions in each study; overall, role playing was correct for 56 percent of 143 predictions, while unaided expert opinions were correct for 16 percent of 172 predictions.