The avian flu that is steadily making its way around the globe will develop into a pandemic that will kill tens of millions, create chaos in companies and send the world economy into a tailspin.
Or it won't.
That uncertainty represents a huge challenge for governments, corporations and citizens worldwide: No one knows what will happen to the avian influenza virus in the coming months and years. Will it mutate into a strain that will allow people to readily infect others and sicken untold numbers? Or will it fizzle out?
Nonetheless, many people are taking into account scenarios ranging from mild to severe in order to plan for what could turn out to be a calamity. With the news over the past few weeks that the flu has moved into a number of additional countries, faculty members at Wharton, health care professionals and risk consultants say it is important that companies assess how their organizations could be harmed by a pandemic and take preventive measures to mitigate the damage and keep their enterprises operating. Indeed, experts say companies should actually be planning for all sorts of risks and include efforts to prepare for a possible flu pandemic within that broader strategic plan.
Wharton management professor Stephen Kobrin attended sessions at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in January and heard executives and others outline the potential dangers of the bird flu. It became clear to him just how calamitous a pandemic could be.
"The concern is not simply with people getting sick and staying out of work," says Kobrin. "It has to do with a fairly substantial breakdown in infrastructure. If there is a pandemic, people will be reluctant to leave their homes. That means disruptions in food supplies, supply chains, mass-transit systems and information technology systems if the systems [fail] and IT people aren't there to fix them.
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